The Price of Abandoning Diplomacy Is a Nuclear Iran

Has the U.S. traded inspectors for assassins?

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Pexels | Photo by Lara Jameson

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Fereydoon Abbasi doesn’t flinch.

In a May 2025 interview, the head of Iran’s nuclear program sits beneath a fluorescent haze, his voice calm, deliberate, unnervingly casual, as if he’s explaining how to cook his favorite soup. But he’s not.

He is explaining how to cook up a nuclear bomb. 90% uranium, some plutonium, electromagnetism, some centrifuges, and the right cone shapes. “We’ve had the ability for 15 to 20 years,” he says, almost bored.

So why hasn’t Iran built a nuclear bomb?

“So far,” Abbasi says calmly, “we haven’t received orders to build [a nuclear weapon].”

Abbasi doesn’t get sentimental about weapons of mass destruction. He proudly explains that if the Iranian government ever gave the order, he would build a nuclear bomb. No hesitation. No regret.

The interviewer then asks what would happen if U.S. or Israeli forces took out their nuclear facilities. “Our capabilities are spread all over the country,” Abbasi shrugs. “Target the sites…it’ll be inconsequential to our timetables.”

Are Abbasi’s boasts true? We’ll never know. He is now dead. He was assassinated by Israeli forces on June 13, 2025, alongside his wife, young child, and nine other nuclear scientists. But if Iran’s nuclear program is a hydra, he was just one head. Behind him are others. Quieter. Angrier. Waiting.

Here is what we do know: According to early U.S. intelligence assessments, the recent strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities did not destroy the sites, but rather set back the Iranian nuclear program “by a few months.” So much for shock and awe.

But here’s the question we always fail to ask when we are too distracted by one volatile dumpster fire after another— How did we get here? How did we go from open inspections and slowed enrichment to threats, assassinations, and the quiet ticking of an underground clock?

To answer that, we have to go back to a different room. A different time. A different president.

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It’s mid-July 2015 in Vienna’s sweltering summer, and negotiators are locked into the Palais Coburg hotel — an 18‑day diplomatic marathon that pushed even the most seasoned diplomats to the edge.

Barack Obama is across the room, his demeanor steady but his eyes sharp. Each whispered decision balances on a knife-edge. Tired and tense, the teams survive on their comfort foods of choice. Iranians nibble on green raisins and pistachios — natural pick-me-ups. Americans lean on American staples like strawberry Twizzlers and cheese strings to keep them alert through the long nights. The British foreign secretary shares his biscuits from Marks & Spencer. The French, of course, out-gourmet them all by raiding Coburg’s famous wine cellars.

Food wrappers accumulate like battle scars on the negotiation table, an unlikely testament to cooperation. Diplomats don’t just talk. They eat, laugh, rest, and argue until dawn. Some even joke they’re negotiating with their stomachs as much as with words.

Finally, after two grueling weeks, nearly 100 pages of agreement, and a lot of snacks, they emerged with an agreement.

And so, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal (2015), was born. Iran agrees to slash its uranium stockpile to 300 kg, limit enrichment to just 3.67% for 15 years, and dismantle two-thirds of its centrifuges. Under the agreement, Iran also gave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) daily access to Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow.

These 18 days weren’t glamorous; they were uncomfortable, human, even messy. But they forged a historic compromise. The diplomats ate together, argued into the night, and held the world’s safety — bite by bite — in their hands.

In a White House press release, Obama summarizes the meeting:

“The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy or some form of war — maybe not tomorrow, maybe not three months from now, but soon. And here’s the irony. As I said before, military action would be far less effective than this deal in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. That’s not just my supposition. Every estimate, including those from Israeli analysts, suggest military action would only set back Iran’s program by a few years at best, which is a fraction of the limitations imposed by this deal. It would likely guarantee that inspectors are kicked out of Iran. It is probable that it would drive Iran’s program deeper underground. It would certainly destroy the international unity that we’ve spent so many years building.”

Funny how every one of Obama’s predictions came true.

Between 2015 and 2018, the IAEA released over a dozen compliance reports, all confirming that Iran was meeting its obligations. In February 2018, the agency reported that Iran was implementing its nuclear-related commitments.

The deal didn’t cement world peace, but it bought time. Time for diplomacy. Time to reduce the threat. Time to avoid war.

Then came Trump.

He called it “the worst deal ever.” In May 2018, he unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, reimposed harsh sanctions, and launched what he called a campaign of “maximum pressure.” U.S. allies condemned Trump’s decision. Iran was complying. Sanctions seemed draconian.

Without the deal, the safeguards vanished, inspections weakened, and communication channels closed. And Iran — no longer bound by its commitments — began spinning centrifuges again.

By mid-2019, Iran exceeded uranium limits. By late 2022, Iran had begun enriching uranium to 60% purity — its most advanced level since the withdrawal, surpassing the 3.67% cap under the JCPOA and inching dangerously close to the 90% threshold required for a nuclear weapon. As of Oct. 26, 2023, the IAEA confirmed Iran held approximately 6,604 kg of enriched uranium — more than 22 times the JCPOA’s 300 kg limit.

Israeli security experts admitted the withdrawal had backfired. Tamir Pardo, former director of the Israeli Mossad from 2011–2016, described Trump’s decision to exit the JCPOA as a “tragedy.” Even Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, who condemned the JCPOA as less than perfect, warned in 2021 that Trump’s decision to exit the Iran deal was a “major mistake.”

Trump didn’t defuse the bomb. He tore out the timer and dared it to explode.

So what now?

There is another path. It’s the same one we walked in 2015. Diplomacy, however flawed, offers a chance. A delay. A conversation. A window.

You might feel powerless. Diplomacy is not in our hands. But most wars don’t end when the bombs run out. They end when the public refuses to be silent. The Vietnam War didn’t collapse on the battlefield — it collapsed under the weight of public protest, media coverage, and a national crisis of conscience.

Speak now. Demand diplomacy. Before the ticking stops.

Carlyn Beccia is an award-winning author and illustrator of 13 books. Subscribe to Conversations with Carlyn for free content every Wednesday, or become a paid subscriber to get the juicy stuff on Sundays